The answer is 'yes' if NBC decides to go along with their plans and move Leno back to 11:35 p.m. and push Conan to 12:05 a.m. This according to a a charmingly funny and well-thought-out statement from Conan himself.
I've worked with Conan O'Brien and his producers over the years and they're a great bunch of people. It'll be a sad day if Conan really does pull the plug, but who could blame him? Six years ago, he was promised 'The Tonight Show' once Leno retired, which was the plan last year. But like the mafia, NBC pulled Leno back in. This would have been fine had they found another venue for Leno once it became clear the 10 p.m. experiment was a gigantic disaster.
So what will Conan do? I have no reason to believe he isn't a man of his word so he'll be gone should NBC push the issue and actually make 'The Tonight Show' the 'First Thing in the Early Morning Show'. I suppose the two men could share the slot--but that would be, not only unprecedented, but a little disjointed. While they have some overlap in audience, Conan's tends to be younger and I don't think there's much crossover in their comedy.
There's always Fox. If the rumors are to be believed, Fox would like to reboot their late night efforts by offering Conan the gig. Many are pointing to Fox's failed attempts at late night fare (poor, poor Chevy) as to why that would be a boneheaded move. I disagree. For some reason, no one remembers Arsenio Hall (which could be the problem, I suppose)--who courted an audience of younger viewers for five years on Fox. They can market a late night show if the package is worth promoting and Conan certainly is--he has proven late night chops and has a built-in audience who will follow him wherever he goes.
In addition, on Fox, Conan would likely get a jump on the competition: most Fox affiliates air their network news at 10 p.m. meaning Conan could take the screen at 11 p.m. This could not only give a nice boost to Conan's ratings but also to local affiliate news casts.
And then there's Leno who has been strangely quiet (outside of his nightly monologues) on the subject. From everything I've heard, Leno is a good guy, a nice guy, and I find it kind of confounding that he's okay with this whole scenario considering he started it by retiring. Putting aside any encouragement he may have been given to retire, it feels like the stand-up thing to do would be to step aside and let Conan and Jimmy Fallon have their time.
The only scenario here that doesn't work for me is Conan leaving TV.
I hope that's not even an option.
